EXTREMES

Chairs: Stefano Federico – Giulia Panegrossi

The working group EXTREMES exploits the synergy of models and observations to understand changes in the risks posed by extreme weather events, to advance our knowledge on formation, feedback and intensification processes, and to improve monitoring, attribution and prediction. All available information arising from satellite and ground observations, process-based studies of individual weather events, high-resolution weather forecasts, including those under perturbed past and future climate states, and future climate projections are used to synthesise knowledge on specific events and on the changing regional hazards and climate risks arising from weather extremes. One line of activity focuses on past weather extreme events, to characterise the relevant meteorological processes and precursors that contributed to the events, identify the presence of observed trends, and attribute the role played by internal climate variability and climate change. The activities focus on the weather extremes in the Mediterranean region, e.g., medicanes, supercells, hailstorms, downbursts, tornadoes, heat waves.

Another line of activity is the predictability of extremes at different spatial and temporal scales, and the improvement of the forecast with different techniques such as data assimilation, use of Earth Observation for nowcasting, and AI-based methods for monitoring and prediction.

Analysis and evaluation of societal impacts and connections with relevant stakeholders are also foreseen, where possibile, to explore bottom-up approaches in assessing regional and local risks funded on user needs. The working group benefits from connections and collaborations with other ongoing international initiatives and funded projects (e.g., Horizon Europe, Cost Action FutureMed, WCRP My Climate Risk).

Projects and initiatives

  • Cost Action FUTURE4MED A TRANSDISCIPLINARY NETWORK TO BRIDGE CLIMATE SCIENCE AND IMPACTS ON SOCIETY (Resp. F. Costabile, S. Davolio)
  • ESA MEDICANES (Earth Observations as a cornerstone to the understanding and prediction of tropical-like cyclone risk in the Mediterranean) (Resp. Giulia Panegrossi)
  • ASI/MUR SpaceItUP! Spoke 7 “Space for the sustainable development of the planet” WP7.2 Resilience to extremes (Resp. Giulia Panegrossi)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  INTERROGATION (unveilINg pasT Events foR dROught risk mitiGATION (Resp. Paolo Stocchi)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  WINDRISK Thunderstorm outflows measurement and modeling for strong–WIND nowcast and RISK mitigation in built environments (Resp. M.M. MIglietta)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  DROMEDAR (Future DROughts and ARidification in the MEDiterranean region and ecological impacts) (Resp. R. D’Agostino)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  H2MED Hail Hazard in the Mediterranean (Resp: Sante Laviola)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022   raINfall exTremEs and their impacts: from local to National ScalE (Resp. Roberta Paranunzio)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022   ENCIRCLE Evaluating the changing risk of cyclones for Italian precipitation extremes (Resp. Giuseppe Zappa)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022   Convection characterization via synergistic geo and leo satellite observations (Resp. Elsa Cattani)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  ARMEX Exploring Atmospheric Rivers in the Mediterranean and their connection with extreme hydrometeorological events over Italy: observation, modelling and impacts (Resp. Silvio Davolio)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  ICREN Intense Convective Rainfall Events Nowcasting (Resp. S. Federico)
  • PRIN-PNRR 2022  NEW-ARGENT – Improvement of NumErical Weather prediction through data Assimilation of Real-time GNSS-Estimated Non-isotropic Troposphere (Resp. S. Federico)